Since I'm addicted to DotA I'm gonna come up with a "percentage to win" post. In this post I'm going to elaborate on chances and how to calculate them. So, if the odds are heavily agaisnt you, back out and don't play. Be a leaver =D Read on if interested. If not interested, then don't read on. Simple as that.
NOTE THAT PERCENTAGES MIGHT EXCEED 100. This simply means that you should win although loss is still possible as DotA is too unpredictable.
First, the format.
First we get the default%.
Second, we get the skill% (does not apply in bnet games)
Thirdly We get the starting money %
(In game)Fourthly we get the hero match%
Anything that happens in the game is unpredictable and should not be taken into account.
Well lets calculate a 1v1 game first of all. At default, the chance to win is 50%. Skill and luck and many other factors affect this.
For example, if the game is AR and you get an Anti-Mage and the loser you're playing with gets a very mana-reliant hero, lets say for example Lich, you have a higher chance to win. However, say you get a ranged and he gets a melee. Say both are agil heroes. Naturally, the ranged would get the upper hand, because of the ability to attack with more ease. However the percentage would not increase as highly when compared to the AM-Lich case, as the melee-ranged thing still requires much more skill in micro. Yes, AM-Lich does still require your skill in micro, but then it makes it a hell of a lot easier.
Considering you're both equally skilled, the percentage will remain at 50%. Let us now take into account the starting money. If the money is equal, then the percentage remains at 50%. However, if your opponent is the host and a retard and puts com on your team, your percentage would decrease. For every com he adds, your percenatage decreases by 10%. Money is important.
Then, here comes the hero match. This again is very important, but it is very difficult to calculate the percentages because of the large number of heroes and combinations. Because this is 1v1 I will give a rough guide. However, like I said before, DotA relies more on skill and experience than just playing. Like an old man once said to a young man," I have eaten more salt than you have rice". But whatever la.
Anyway like I said, a rough guide:(note that this is my guide and is taken from my point of view)
TYPICALLY, I go by scissors paper stone. Strength TYPICALLY beats Intel, Intel TYPICALLY beats Agility, and Agility TYPICALLY beats strength. However, Late or Early gameness affect this. I shall speak more on that later, probably around the 5v5 area.
Anyway, like I said, ranged usually beats melee because MOST of the time, farming and harassing is much easier. For a melee hero to harass you, he would have to run pass the creeps, which would in turn attack him because he aggrovated them by aim at you, and then actually run next to you and attack you, time during which could be spent landing several blows on him. So, for one attack against you, he would 1. take damage from creeps, 2. waste farming time running at you, 3. take more damage than he deals because of the few attacks you can hit him with on his way there and back.
So, for ranged against melee, add 10% to the ranged. Then it gets more complicated. Skills(hero skills) come in. Technically, if you have a skill that counters his directly, for example Spell Shield which defends against spells, and your opponent has spells, then just add 5%, or for others like a silence, which is much harder to place, then add less. 1-4%.
In 2v1,3v1,4v1,5v1 games, we get the defualt percentage first as usual, namely, in 2v1 game, the team with 1 has a 33.3333% chance to win while the one with two has 66.6666%. In 3v1, the team with 1 has 25% and the other team has a 75% chance. Namely, we just divide the percentages among the people. Lets say I'm playing 1v2. The other two are noobs and I can own them easily. So, use the following table below:
Confirm can own: +10% yours -10% them PER APPLICABLE
Might own: +7-9% yours -whatever you added earlier PER APPLICABLE.
Evenly matched: +/- nothing
Might lose: -7-9% yours +whatever you deducted earlier PER APPLICABLE
Confirm die: -10% +10% PER APPLICABLE.
Once again the starting money. For every one more player than you, (assuming you have no coms on your team), add 10%
Also, if you random, add 1%.
And hero match. Well, you get the idea.
Now onto 5v5s.
The default as usual, 50-50. So then it's the skill. Well use the table above.
Starting money is equal, until the randoming comes. For every random on your team +1% and deduct from them 1%. Do the same for them.
Hero match I already explained. Here's another table:
All intel v all intel. Using the SPS tactic, intel vs intel is evenly matched, so we have to check out the skills.
1 AGIL 4 intel V all intel. Using the SPS tactic, the team with all intel WOULD win since intel beats agil. However, typically, intel heroes are early gamers and agils range from mid to late game. So, as the game drags on, team ONE would have the higher percentage. Obviously, in terms of skills, FacelessVoid is later than Clinkz, so typically, his percentage would go up. However, I haven't found out how to calculate so there.
That's the end of my document.
.-twisted